Ryan's Portfolio

Goals - High growth. Focus on broad variety of stocks that I have understand the markets of. Right now trying to pull back to preserve dry powder.

End of Jan 2021 Update
Individual Stocks

  • AMD (AMD) - 2.8%
  • Alaska Airlines (ALK) - 3.9%
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) - 7.3%
  • Park Hotels (PK) - 3.9%
  • Redfin (RDFN) - 15.7%

ETFs

  • Vanguard Consumer Staples (VDC) - 2%
  • Vanguard Financials (VFH) - 2%
  • Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) - 2%
  • Vanguard Utilities (VPU) - 4%
  • Vanguard Europe (VGK) - 2%
  • Franklin United Kingdom (FLGB) - 2%
  • Vanguard TIP (VTIP) - 51%

Mid February update - continued to diversify and got into a few small options positions… including a stok I love (but think is grossly overvalued by at least 4-6x)… Tesla! Going to continue expanding gold position to 5% as an inflation hedge, and on the fence whether to expand my real estate exposure (SCHH/VNQ). Increase in redfin is due to gains (even after skimming some gains off the top).

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End of Feb Update - Took small bit of gains across the board, diversified further into gold and gold miners as an inflation hedge. Added a few new long options on AMD and RDFN, and a few new put options for fun on Virgin Space.

End of March update - took a few gains of airlines/hotel stocks, and added some additional diversification into generic REITS and some of the more recession proof medical/farm sectors. Also increased positions in VZ, RDFN (bought in as price fell), and AMD.

Looking more at DOCN right now… interesting company.

Solid, I see you are preparing for inflation protection. How did you consider some of your options? Which of your stocks of ETFs have high dividends?

Dividends are nice, but I mainly look for high-quality assets at a good price.

End of April update - finally in a happy inflation defensive position with a still relatively strong mix of bets on a few key future growth stocks (AMD,RDFN). Took some gains off airlines when the stocks peaked 1-2 weeks ago, but still would like to continue to trim position to 1-2% each. Drew down on TIPS (VTIP) to spread the risk over other inflation hedged assets, including real estate (SCHH, MPW, SPG, WPC), foreign markets (FLAU, FLBR, FLCA, FLIN, FLGB, VGK), gold (GLDM, GDX, GDXJ), and a very small currency (FXB/FXE) hedge.

I also continued to invest in a most of my previous option bets as prices sunk… still yet to be determined if I’m over extended there.

I am still hesitant to buy options. Seems risky as information is limited to really make an educated gamble. Options seem a little less risky than buying a penny stock. Change my mind?

@Brian - You are absolutely right - options are a riskier “bet”, however they allow for a far greater exposure to the upset for a relatively limited amount. Meaning, with an option I could put $1000 and see massive returns, whereas if I just bought the stock outright I might have to pay 5-6-7000 to have the same returns.

The flip side is that if the price goes the opposite direction you can loose everything. This is part of the reason I only do options on stocks I’m highly confident on the direction they will go with high growth potential (4x, 5x, 6x+). I also tend to only do long duration calls (1.5-2 years), because it removes much of the unknown churn that can happen over the short term. Short-term call/put options I really think are gambling, because there’s no way to know what a stock will do over days, weeks, or even months - rather I stick to long term value investing.

In short, I use options not to replace buying normal stocks, but to flush out a position I have high confidence in, in order to capture more of the hoped for upside.

Decided to break up more portfolio into 4 “target areas”:

  • Aggressive: ~37% (target 30%)
  • Blue Chip: ~7% (target 10%)
  • Real Estate: 14% (target 15%)
  • Reserves: ~41% (target 45%)

Attempting to wind down a few of my more aggressive stocks as they return to pre-pandemic levels (airlines, hotel REITS). Primary goal at the moment is positioning to counter inflation and interest rate risk.

Aggressive - A little over extended with options than I would have liked (prices kept falling), but otherwise have strong bets on RDFN, DOCN, and AMD.

Blue Chip - Attempting to diversify and mitigate some inflation risk with companies that haven’t been run up over the past year. VDC was a strong player at one point, but worried it might be including too many overvalued companies at the moment (i.e. COSTCO, etc.).

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Real Estate - Another counter-inflation play, although interest rate risk is a concern for REITs. Still trying to unwind the last of PK (strong recovery stock) as it returns to pre-pandemic levels. Have attempted to diversify into office, retail, hotels, and a small bit of data center exposure. As you can see, SCHH still is the largest holding.

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Reserves - Target is capital value preservation, with primary holding in short-term TIPS. Rounding it out is a strong position in inflation hedges of gold, a direct treasurer inflation hedge (RINF), and foreign exchange hedges.

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