Brian's Portfolio

Focused on long-term growth. Individual stocks are well researched and have the potential for long-term growth. Heavy stock investment in tourism and travel to hold until they hit pre-COVID prices. DKMR and RYCEY are risky with high volatility for short-term gains … or losses. ETF’s are balanced across major sectors of the U.S. economy. The European and VIX ETFs and funds are for portfolio diversity.

2.5% in DKMR haha

and 2.5% UVXY? Bold for a counter-move, although why not gold or more TIPS if you’re worried? UVXY can be a decent hedge, although odd in isolation from other more common hedges.

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UVXY proved to be too bold. Diversified a bit into gold and energy.

Haha I warned you on UVXY! To be fair, you did get lucky up front, but its so dynamic and unpredictible its borderline useless for long term value investors.

Looking at your distribution, what is your thesis for Norwegian, RIOT, and DKMR (where do you see them going up to)?

I’d pair back your VFH, its done well recently so might want to take some off the table. That said, financial might be fairly okay when high inflation hits.

I’m also slowly catching up to your big SCHH REIT position, you were smart moving so earlier and aggressively on that one.

I did get lucky with my first round of UVXY … but all good things come to an end lol.

Norwegian has big upswing (100% gains at where I purchased if they recover back to pre-COVID share prices). I know they are not like airlines that get bailouts. Some may even consider the airlines business to be a national necessity. Cruise lines are not that and Norwegian does carry a lot of debt. I was worried that they were on the brink of bankruptcy in July of last year. They are on the upswing now and as states ease back COVID restrictions, they will begin to turn a profit again. Some travel sources I read claim that the next 2 years are going to be very good for the tourist industry. Similar thinking here to why we have Park, Delta, and Alaska … just with a bit more risk.

ROIT is playing on the BITCOIN craze. I like investing in an actual company instead of just BITCOIN. I am interested to see where they go. Link below if interested.

DKMR … well not sure where they will go. Made my money back on them already … playing the upswings and downswings. Who knows …

Good points on travel stocks… I think I underinvested in the industry when they were super cheap.

I should have gone for a wide spread of the top 2-3 in each sub-industry to ride the wave back up we’ve seen since (instead, at the time I was trying to counter perceived bankruptcy risk by being highly selective instead of de-risk by aggregation).

Still on the fence with cruise lines though… particularly given how they’ve already recovered so much… How high do you see Norwegian going?

I see them landing back at their historical average of between $50-60 a share. In the short term 1-2 years, I see them going above that as the travel and vacation deprived population is set free.

Are you worried about there debt load? Over $12 billion I’m debt for Norweigian alone and $60+ for all the major cruise lines combined.

Two possibilities

  • they can’t service debt even when fully up and running
  • they issue more stock to raise funds, pay down debt, but that extra stock will dilute your stake and drive down prices and spread any earnings (does Norwegian even pay a dividend usually) further.

For example: